IMAGE CREDIT: CHATGPT
Today, I find myself writing about climate change and malaria once again, just as I did in June last year. The research papers carry a similar warning: climate change will make fighting malaria in Africa harder, and its impacts will be devastating.
While the paper I cited in June last year examined the effects of rising temperatures, a new study in Nature that I review suggests the real danger lies elsewhere–not in slow warming, but in floods, cyclones, and the damage they cause to health systems and homes.
According to the study, climate change could cause 123 million additional malaria cases and more than 500,000 extra deaths in Africa between 2024 and 2050, even if current malaria control efforts stay in place
That scale of impact threatens decades of progress against one of the continent’s deadliest diseases.
What surprises researchers most is why malaria risk rises. “Extreme weather events emerge as the primary driver of increased risk, accounting for 79% of additional cases and 93% of additional deaths,” the authors write
In other words, climate change worsens malaria mainly by disrupting prevention and treatment, not simply by creating better conditions for mosquitoes.
Floods and cyclones damage houses, wash away mosquito nets, interrupt spraying campaigns, and make it harder for people to reach clinics. “Extreme weather events such as floods and cyclones damage homes and infrastructure, disrupting access to healthcare, protective housing and malaria control,” the paper notes
When treatment is delayed or unavailable, infections are more likely to become severe or fatal.
This finding challenges the traditional way climate–malaria links are discussed. Much past research focused on temperature and rainfall effects on mosquito biology. But the authors argue that this focus misses the bigger picture. “Contrary to the prevailing focus on ecological mechanisms, disruptive effects of extreme weather dominate future malaria risk,” they conclude.
Geographically, the study does not predict malaria spreading widely into new regions. Instead, risk intensifies where malaria already exists. “Most increases stem from intensification in existing endemic areas rather than range expansion,” the researchers report
Densely populated regions such as Nigeria and the African Great Lakes region face especially large increases in cases.
This distinction matters for policy. The authors estimate that more than 99% of climate-related malaria cases will occur in places already suitable for transmission, meaning health systems already under pressure will face even greater strain.
The implications for malaria eradication are stark. “Taken as a whole, our findings demonstrate the potential of climate change to substantially hinder malaria reduction and eradication over the coming 25 years,” the paper warns.
Still, the authors stress that this outcome is not inevitable. While gradual ecological changes could be managed with modest additional interventions, the real threat comes from fragile systems exposed to climate shocks. The solution, they argue, lies in resilience. “These results highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient malaria control strategies and robust emergency response systems,” they write.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“When children who have malnutrition are exposed to waterborne illness, even a bout of diarrhea can prove to be deadly,” Guy Taylor, a spokesman in Mozambique for UNICEF on floods that have so far killed more than 100 people in southern Africa. Via New York Times.
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS
Supporting Children with Autism in Kenya: A new study highlights gaps in education and care for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in Nairobi and Kiambu counties. While school enrollment is rising, inclusive classrooms help children develop social skills more than academics. Therapy services like speech and occupational therapy remain costly and hard to access, forcing many families to rely on home-based interventions. Parents face emotional, social, and financial strain, often depending on prayer and informal networks for support. [Reference, APHRC]
Early Rains Give Local Pearl Millet an Edge in Namibia: A new field study from northern Namibia challenges the belief that improved crop varieties always outperform traditional ones. Researchers found that Kantana, a local pearl millet landrace, produced the highest grain and biomass yields when sown early, by January 1, thanks to its longer growing period. In contrast, the improved variety performed best under later sowing, delivering more stable yields during delayed or erratic rains. The findings suggest farmers can boost production by matching crop type to sowing time, but only if they have timely access to seed, fertilizer, and ploughing services—an increasing challenge under climate variability. [Reference, ASA]
Whose Knowledge Shapes Health Reform in Africa? implementation of science—meant to close the gap between research and real-world health care—often fails African health systems by sidelining African ways of knowing. Dominant frameworks, developed largely in Europe and North America, overlook how programmes actually succeed in Africa: through community legitimacy, traditional governance, relational trust, and Indigenous knowledge. Case studies from Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe reveal that these factors are not “context,” but core drivers of impact. The paper calls for a fundamental shift—centering African epistemologies, sharing power in knowledge production, and rethinking what counts as evidence. [Reference, The Lancet Global Health]
You can find additional details on our social media channels, from X to YouTube , LinkedIn, TikTok and Instagram
—END—