Higher-than-usual temperatures are associated with an increased risk of intimate partner violence (IPV) among women in Africa, with younger and less-educated women appearing particularly vulnerable, according to a study published in Global Environmental Change.
The study analysed data from Demographic and Health Surveys involving women aged 15 to 49 in low- and middle-income countries, combining information on reported IPV with temperature and socioeconomic data.
Researchers examined how temperature anomalies were associated with different forms of violence and projected potential risks under future climate scenarios.
The researchers found that a one-standard-deviation increase in temperature was associated with a measurable rise in the likelihood that a woman would experience IPV.
“We estimate that a temperature anomaly of one standard deviation (SD) leads to an increase of 1.7 percentage points (pp) in the probability of women experiencing any form of IPV,” the researchers said in the paper.
The study discovered that the association was significant for emotional violence, less severe physical violence and severe physical violence. The relationship with sexual IPV, however, was not statistically significant.
However, across the countries and regions examined, IPV remained widespread, with an average reported prevalence of 31.4% among women included in the analysis. In some parts of Central Africa, more than half of interviewed women reported experiencing some form of IPV during the previous 12 months.
The researchers also found important differences between groups. Younger women were more likely to report IPV than older women, while women with lower levels of education faced greater vulnerability.
Furthermore, limited economic resources and lower household decision-making power were also identified as factors associated with higher risk.
“Overall, younger and less educated women are more likely to report IPV in the 12 months prior to being interviewed as part of DHS, highlighting that they are disproportionately affected by IPV.” the researchers stated.
Meanwhile, the study suggests that climate change could further increase the burden if societies do not adapt to rising temperatures. Projections combining different socioeconomic and climate pathways showed higher IPV risks under future warming scenarios.
“Climate change will raise IPV risk under all scenarios when assuming no further adaptation to global warming.” The study found.
However, the researchers stress that temperature is only one part of a much broader problem.
Additionally, population growth, education, economic conditions, gender inequality and women’s empowerment can influence how climate-related pressures translate into IPV risk.
The study argues that reducing emissions remains important, but social policies could also play a major role in reducing vulnerability. Investments in girls’ education, delayed marriage and women’s economic empowerment were highlighted as particularly important measures.
The researchers also caution that IPV is often underreported, meaning the true burden may be higher than survey data indicate. They also note that the findings show an association between temperature anomalies and IPV risk rather than proving that heat alone causes violence.
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