A new climate study has warned that droughts in Southern Africa are increasingly lasting across multiple seasons, which could cause food scarcity, water shortages, and economic disruption in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions.
Published in the International Journal of Climatology, the study found that drought in the region is often not a short-term event but can continue from one season into the next, making it harder for farming communities, rivers, and grazing land to recover before another dry spell begins.
“Drought in Southern Africa is often not a one-season crisis — it frequently carries over into the next season,” the authors say in the study.
The research, which examined climate records from 1950 to 2021, focused on Southern Africa and four major river basins — Limpopo, Zambezi, Okavango, and Orange.
In its key findings, the Limpopo Basin emerged as the hardest-hit area, recording the highest average drought frequency of all the basins studied. Recent years have seen droughts there become more common, particularly in spring, which could affect the start of seasonal rains.
Meanwhile, although winter had the highest overall number of droughts, scientists said summer droughts may be more damaging because they strike during the main growing season, when crops need water most.
“Winter recorded the highest drought frequency across Southern Africa, but drought during summer can be more devastating because it strikes in the middle of the growing season,” the study noted.
The researchers also identified El Niño as a major driver of prolonged dry spells, noting that when El Niño conditions remain active across seasons, the risk of drought rises over large parts of the region.
Additionally, other oceanic and atmospheric systems in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans can influence rainfall patterns, depending on the season and location.
Overall, Southern Africa has been warming steadily, a trend that can worsen drought by drying soils faster and increasing evaporation.
“Understanding whether drought will persist into the next season can help governments, farmers, and aid agencies act earlier and reduce losses,” the study says.
These findings come as Southern Africa faces repeated climate shocks that have strained harvests, hydropower generation, and livelihoods across the region.
Photo from WFP